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1. Making better decisions using Systems Thinking
2. What is systems thinking? Looking at the whole picture Unintended side effects Uncover the underlying dynamics Looking below the surface of the lily pond Reacting Adaptation
3. The evolutionary heritage Reacting Two systems Theory of reality Compression of data Groupsize
4. Good management: dealing wisely with dilemmas Time dilemma: Do you make short- or long-term choices? Scope dilemma: Do you choose a narrow or a broad scope? Awareness dilemma: do you choose to face the facts or take refuge in fantasies? Dealing with dilemmas: leadership and wisdom Leadership What should we understand by wisdom? Dealing wisely with organisations
5. A systemic view of organisations Reinforcing effects: why do things get out of hand? The Pygmalion effect: higher expectations lead to higher performance Exponential growth Balancing feedback: why things don''t budge
6. Impatient managers create chaos The effects of time delays Systems thinking and time delays What are our steering criteria?
7. The Value Creation Model What is the Value Creation Model? Why, What, How Creating value with distinctive competences Internal and external developments The strategic function typology
8. The value creation model in action Laboratory for bakery ingredients Employment agency for surveillance duties Public agency Dealing wisely with your reinforcing loop Pitfalls
9. What has been done when the work is done? The current situation The vision And what do you do next?
10. Driving forces that generate and sustain patterns Genetic disposition and system Our early years and system Our tribe and system The rational system Vision Reality check
11. Two driving forces in depth: Mental models and Team learning Mental models: what are the dominant mental models? Team learning: which group dynamics play a role? The results of our dive into the lily pond
12. Looking under the surface of the lily pond: Applying systems thinking in six steps Going under the water level: assessing reality and the driving structure Step
1: tell the whole story Step
2: describe the behaviour over time in graphs Step
3: formulate the focusing question and your scope Step
4: identify archetypes or fixed patterns Step
5: increase your understanding by looking closer at the driving forces Step
6: planning an intervention
13. Pitfalls of short time horizon Fixes that backfire Shifting the burden
14. Pitfalls of not looking far enough around you Escalation Success to the successful
15. Pitfalls of fear of facing reality Drifting goals Limits to growth
16. Pitfall of a combination of short time horizon and not looking far enough around you Accidental adversaries Not building trust
17. Pitfalls of a combination of short time horizon, not looking far enough around you and fear of facing reality Growth and under-investment Tragedy of the commons
18. Adaptive leadership Sit still Know the value creation model of your organisation Don''t think you can make the system perfect Sometimes you have to begin a new system or organisation Think holistically: keep the whole system in mind Make an honest assessment of the situation Discover the hidden assumptions; verify if everybody is discussing the same subject Bring the whole system into the room Look for actions with leveraâ?¥ don''t use a bigger hammer Ask yourself the questions of the system thinker
19. Systemic Pitfalls in Cooperation; The pitfalls from a bird''s eye view..... The Value Creation Model Fixes that backfire Shifting the burden Escalation Success to the successful Drifting goals Limits to growth Accidental adversaries Growth and underinvestment Tragedy of the commons The patterns from a bird''s eye view on 1 A4 References Annexe: Language of systems thinking Variables and causal relations Causal relations: same and opposite Looping technique