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Chapter 1: Introduction
Why Intelligence Fails What the Book Is About Summary NotesChapter
2: Intelligence in Twenty-First-Century Century Conflict Nature of Twenty-First-Century Century Conflict Tools of Conflict The Conflict Spectrum The Function of Intelligence Summary NotesPart
I: The Analysis ProcessChapter
3: The Intelligence Process The Traditional Intelligence Cycle Intelligence as a Target-Centric Process The Target Summary NotesChapter
4: Defining the Intelligence Issue Statement of the Issue The Issue Definition Product Issue Decomposition Complex Issue Decomposition Structured Analytic Methodologies for Issue Definition Example: Defining the Counterintelligence Issue Summary NotesChapter
5: Conceptual Frameworks for Intelligence Analysis Analytic Perspectives - PMESII Modeling the Intelligence Target Modeling Using PMESII Using Models in Analysis Summary NotesChapter
6: Overview of Models in Intelligence Creating a Conceptual Model Textual Models Mathematical Models Visual Models Advanced Target Models Target Model Combinations Alternative and Competitive Target Models Summary NotesChapter
7: Creating the Model Existing Intelligence Sources of New Raw Intelligence Evaluating Evidence Combining Evidence Structured Augmentation A Note About the Role of Information Technology Summary NotesChapter
8: Denial, Deception, and Signaling Denial Deception Defense against D&D: Protecting Intelligence Sources and Methods Higher Level Denial and Deception Countering Denial and Deception Signaling Analytic Tradecraft in a World of Denial and Deception Summary NotesChapter
9: Systems Modeling and Analysis Analyzing an Existing System: The Mujahedeen Insurgency Analyzing a Developmental System: Methodology Performance Schedule Risk Cost Operations Research Summary NotesChapter
10: Network Modeling and Analysis Link Models Network Models Some Network Types Modeling the Network Analyzing the Network Summary NotesChapter
11: Geospatial and Temporal Modeling and Analysis Static Geospatial Models Temporal Models Dynamic Geospatial Models Summary NotesPart
II: The Estimative ProcessChapter
12: Predictive Analysis Introduction to Predictive Analysis Convergent and Divergent Phenomena The Estimative Approach Summary NotesChapter
13: Estimative Forces Inertia Countervailing Forces Contamination Synergy Feedback Unintended Consequences Summary NotesChapter
14: Scenarios Why Use Scenarios? Types of Scenarios Scenario Perspectives How to Construct Scenarios Indicators and the Role of Intelligence A Scenario Exercise: The Global Information Environment in 2020 Summary NotesChapter
15: Simulation Modeling Types of Simulations Creating and Running a Simulation Simulations Used in Intelligence Analysis Decision Modeling and Simulation Checking the Decision Model: Red Team Analysis Summary NotesPart
III: Systems and Network Views of AnalysisChapter
16: A Systems View: Function Intelligence Research Current Intelligence Indications and Warning What Should an Intelligence Unit Produce? Limits and Boundaries The Pathology of Failures Summary NotesChapter
17: A Systems View: Process Identify the Customer Planning the Analysis Project Managing Team Efforts Preparing the Analytic Product Reviewing the Analytic Product Evaluating the Analytic Product Summary NotesChapter
18: A Systems View: Structure Topical or Regional Structure? The Analyst Analytic Teams Summary NotesChapter
19: A Network View: The Customer Overview of Customers Analyst-Customer Interaction Summary NotesChapter
20: A Network View: The Collector The U. S. Collection Management Problem Interrelating the Issue and Target Model Identifying Gaps Developing the Collection Strategy Planning for Future Collection: Filling the Long-Term Gaps Executing Collection Strategies Summary Notes