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Tables, Figures, and BoxesPreface What''s New? AcknowledgmentsPart I: The Process, the Participants, and the ProductChapter 1: Introduction Why Intelligence Fails What the Book Is About Summary NotesChapter 2: Intelligence in the Age of Contested Norms and Persistent Disorder Nature of Twenty-First-Century Conflict Tools of Conflict The Function of Intelligence Summary Critical Thinking Questions NotesChapter 3: The Intelligence Process The Traditional Intelligence Cycle Intelligence as a Target-Centric Process The Target Summary Critical Thinking Questions NotesChapter 4: The Customer Overview of Customers Identifying the Customer Summary Critical Thinking Questions NotesChapter 5: The Analyst Critical and Logical Thinking Objectivity Broad Perspective Good Instincts The Analyst''s Role Analytic Teams Summary Critical Thinking Questions NotesChapter 6: The Analytic Network The U.S. National Intelligence Network Homeland Security Military Law Enforcement Collaboration and Sharing Summary Critical Thinking Questions NotesChapter 7: The Intelligence Product Intelligence Research Current Intelligence Indications and Warning What Should an Intelligence Unit Produce? Constraints on the Intelligence Product Summary Critical Thinking Questions NotesPart II: The Analysis ProcessChapter 8: The Intelligence Issue Preliminary Questions Issue Definition Issue Decomposition Summary Critical Thinking Questions NotesChapter 9: Target Models Modeling the Intelligence Target Some General Target Models Summary Critical Thinking Questions NotesChapter 10: The Target Framework Creating a Target Framework Issue
1: Al-Shabaab Ideology Issue
2: Influencing Azerbaijan Issue
3: The Monopolitania BW Threat Alternative and Competitive Target Frameworks The Dynamic Framework Summary Critical Thinking Questions NotesChapter 11: Analyzing Existing Intelligence Existing Finished Intelligence Sources of Raw Intelligence Evaluating Evidence Combining Evidence Structured Argumentation A Note about the Role of Information Technology Summary Critical Thinking Questions NotesChapter 12: The Information Sources: Filling Gaps Interrelating the Issue Decomposition and Target Framework Identifying Gaps Developing the Collection Strategy Executing Collection Strategies Analyst-Collector Interaction Evaluating Collection Collection Requirements Summary Critical Thinking Questions NotesChapter 13: Denial, Deception, and Signaling Denial Deception Defense against Denial and Deception: Protecting Intelligence Sources and Methods Countering Denial and Deception Signaling Summary Critical Thinking Questions NotesChapter 14: Gaining Customer Acceptance Structuring the Message Presenting the Message Reviewing the Analytic Product Customer Interaction Analyst as Advocate: Getting Buy-In Aftermath: Dealing with Unexpected Outcomes Summary Critical Thinking Questions NotesPart III: Anticipatory Analysis and ModelingChapter 15: Anticipatory Analysis: Forces Background Forces Synergy Causal Models Summary Critical Thinking Questions NotesChapter 16: Anticipatory Analysis: Methodology Convergent and Divergent Phenomena The Estimative Approach Unintended Consequences Summary Critical Thinking Questions NotesChapter 17: Outcome Scenarios Why Use Scenarios? Types of Scenarios Scenario Perspectives How to Construct Scenarios Summary Critical Thinking Questions NotesChapter 18: Systems Modeling and Analysis Systems Analysis Methodology Performance Process Risk Cost Operations Research Summary Critical Thinking Questions NotesChapter 19: Relationship Modeling and Analysis Link Models Network Models Network Analysis Summary Critical Thinking Questions NotesChapter 20: Geospatial Modeling and Analysis Static Geospatial Models Dynamic Geospatial Models Summary Critical Thinking Questions NotesChapter 21: Simulation Modeling Types of Simulations Creating and Running a Simulation Simulations Used in Intelligence Analysis Decision Modeling and Simulation Checking the Decision Model: Red Team Analysis Summary Critical Thinking Questions NotesChapter 22: Case Study: A Tale of Two NIEs The Yugoslavia NIE The Iraqi Weapons of Mass Destruction NIE Critical Thinking Questions NotesList of Commonly Used AcronymsIndexAbout the Author