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Viser: Probably Not - Future Prediction Using Probability and Statistical Inference
Probably Not Vital Source e-bog
Lawrence N. Dworsky
(2008)
Probably Not
Future Prediction Using Probability and Statistical Inference
Lawrence N. Dworsky
(2008)
Sprog: Engelsk
om ca. 10 hverdage
Detaljer om varen
- 1. Udgave
- Vital Source searchable e-book (Fixed pages)
- Udgiver: John Wiley & Sons (Maj 2008)
- ISBN: 9780470282045
Bookshelf online: 5 år fra købsdato.
Bookshelf appen: ubegrænset dage fra købsdato.
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Print: 10 sider kan printes ad gangen
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Detaljer om varen
- Paperback: 328 sider
- Udgiver: John Wiley & Sons, Incorporated (April 2008)
- ISBN: 9780470184011
Although Probably Not deals with probability and statistics, itis not heavily mathematical and is not filled with complexderivations, proofs, and theoretical problem sets. This bookunveils the world of statistics through questions such as what isknown based upon the information at hand and what can be expectedto happen. While learning essential concepts including "theconfidence factor" and "random walks," readers will be entertainedand intrigued as they move from chapter to chapter. Moreover, theauthor provides a foundation of basic principles to guide decisionmaking in almost all facets of life including playing games,developing winning business strategies, and managing personalfinances.
Much of the book is organized around easy-to-follow examplesthat address common, everyday issues such as:
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How travel time is affected by congestion, driving speed, andtraffic lights
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Why different gambling casino strategies ultimately offerplayers no advantage
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How to estimate how many different birds of one species are seenon a walk through the woods
Seemingly random events?coin flip games, the Central LimitTheorem, binomial distributions and Poisson distributions,Parrando's Paradox, and Benford's Law?are addressed andtreated through key concepts and methods in probability. Inaddition, fun-to-solve problems including "the shared birthday" and"the prize behind door number one, two, or three" are foundthroughout the book, which allow readers to test and practice theirnew probability skills. Requiring little background knowledge ofmathematics, readers will gain a greater understanding of the manydaily activities and events that involve random processes andstatistics.
Combining the mathematics of probability with real-worldexamples, Probably Not is an ideal reference for practitioners andstudents who would like to learn more about the role of probabilityand statistics in everyday decision making.
1. An Introduction to Probability. Predicting The Future. Rule Making. Random Events and Probability. The Lottery {Very Improbable Events and Large Data Sets}. Coin Flipping {Fair Games, Looking Backwards For Insight}. The Coin Flip Strategy That Can't Lose. The Prize Behind The Door {Looking Backwards For Insight, Again}. The Checker Board {Dealing With Only
Part Of The Data Set}.
2. Probability Distribution Functions And Some Basics. The Probability Distribution Function. Averages And Weighted Averages. Expected Values. The Basic Coin Flip Game. The Standard Deviation. The Cumulative Distribution Function. The Confidence Interval. Final Points.
3. Building a Bell.
4. Random Walks. The One Dimensional Random Walk. What Probability Really Means. Diffusion.
5. Life Insurance and Social Security. Insurance as Gambling. Life Tables. Birth Rates and Population Stability. Life Tables, Again. Premiums. Social Security - Sooner Or Later'.
6. Binomial Probabilities. The Binomial Probability Formula. Permutations And Combinations. Large Number Approximations. The Poisson Distribution. Disease Clusters. Clusters.
7. Pseudorandom Numbers and Monte Carlo Simulations. Pseudorandom Numbers. The Middle Square PSNG. The Linear Congruential PSNG. A Normal Distribution Generator. An Arbitrary Distribution Generator. Monte Carlo Simulations. A League Of Our Own.
8. Some Gambling Games In Detail. The Basic Coin Flip Game. The Gantt Chart. The Ultimate "Winning Strategy". The Game Show. Parimutuel Betting.
9. Traffic Lights And Traffic. Outsmarting A Traffic Light'. Many Lights And Many Cars. Simulating Traffic Flow - The Simulation. Simulation Results.
10. Combined And Conditional Probabilities. Functional Notation. Conditional Probability. Medical Test Results. The Shared Birthday Problem.
11. Scheduling And Waiting. Scheduling Appointments In The Doctor's Office. Lunch With A Friend. Waiting For A Bus.
12. Stock Market Portfolios.
13. Benford, Parrondo and Simpson. Benford's Law. Parrondo's Paradox. Simpson's Paradox.
14. Networks, Infectious Disease Propagation and Chain Letters. Degrees Of Separation. Propagation Along Networks. Some Other Uses Of Networks. Neighborhood Chains.
15. Bird Counting. A Walk In The Woods. A Model Of Bird Flying Habits. Spotting A Bird. Putting It All Together.
16. Statistical Mechanics And Heat. Statistical Mechanics. Thermodynamics.
17. Introduction To Statistical Analysis. Sampling. Sample Distributions and Standard Deviations. Estimating Population Average From A Sample. The Student-T Distribution. Polling Statistics. Did A Sample Come From A Given Population'.
18. Chaos and Quanta. Chaos. Probability In Quantum Mechanics.
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